4* PUBLIC BLOOD BATH on Idaho State +

Idaho State vs. Montana, 01/24/2013 21:00 EDT, Score: 51 - 70

Point Spread: +13½/-103 Idaho State

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

4* PUBLIC BLOOD BATH on Idaho State +



I'm not going to sugar coat this one that Idaho State is a decent team with a chance to win. They aren't a good team and a win would be a surprise. However, a couple of things I like here. The first is that it's a classic look ahead game for Montana. They have Weber State on deck Saturday so you can bet they spent a little bit of time preparing for that game instead of worrying about the 4-13 Bengals.



The other thing I like is that both of these teams play at a very slow pace. Idaho State averages under 60 possessions per game, while Montana is only at 65. With few chances to score, it's always a wise idea to take the double digits.



Last year Idaho State went up to Montana and lost by 36 points. They were also beat on their home floor by 24. The Grizzlies are going to take this team lightly, but Idaho State should be giving this game their full attention to avoid another embarrassment. I'll take the points.



A few systems support our play here today that say to play against home double digit favorites off a home conference win against an opponent off an upset loss as a favorite. This system has gone 96-55 (63.6%) ATS since 1997. You want to take double digit underdogs after two straight games in which both teams score 65 points or less. This system is 189-114 (62.4%) the last five years.