4* HEAVY HITTER on San Diego +

San Diego vs. St. Mary's, 01/24/2013 23:00 EDT, Score: 48 - 81

Point Spread: +14½/-105 San Diego

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

4* HEAVY HITTER on San Diego +



St. Mary's has looked good so far this year, winning seven of their last eight games and that sole loss being at Gonzaga. However, I think they are laying a few too many points here to a decent San Diego squad. The Torreros were on a five game winning streak of their own with upset wins at San Francisco and at Pepperdine. Their streak came to an end at BYU, a team that is comparable to what they will face here tonight.



St. Mary's shoots a lot of three-pointers, and hits them at a high rate (38.5%). However, San Diego does a good job defending the perimeter, allowing only 30.6% of their opponents three-point attempts to hit. This is a pretty solid matchup for the Torreros and I think they keep it close enough to get us the cover here tonight.



Our play falls into a nice situation here that says to fade double digit favorites off a conference win by 20+ points or more when playing an opponent off a double digit conference loss. This situation has gone 72-38 (65.5%) the last five years. You also want to take double digit underdogs off a conference road loss when playing an opponent off two or more straight road wins. This system is 57-22 (72.2%) ATS over the last five years.