15* Utah/Washington Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +10.5
Utah vs. Washington,
01/19/2013 23:00 EDT,
Score: 74 - 65
Point Spread: +10½/-110 Utah
The Utah Utes are one of the most underrated teams in the country due to their 8-9 start. They are highly motivated for their first Pac-12 victory of the season Saturday. Clearly, when you look at most of their losses this season, its easy to see that this team is much better than its record would indicate.
Seven of Utah's eight losses have come by 10 points or less. That includes road losses to Arizona State (54-55) as an 8-point dog, to Arizona (57-60) as a 19-point dog, and home to UCLA (53-57) as a 7-point dog. There's no question that the Utes have what it takes to play with the Huskies tonight.
Washington is on a nice run right now, but with this run comes expectations from oddsmakers that it cannot live up to. It has won four straight while beating Washington State, Cal and Stanford on the road while also knocking off Colorado at home. The Huskies could easily be overlooking the Utes tonight and looking ahead to a five-game stretch that includes Oregon State, Oregon, Arizona, Arizona State and UCLA.
This play falls into a system that is 31-6 (83.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 10 or more points (UTAH) - a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games.
Utah is 12-3 ATS after 5 or more consecutive losses since 1997. Washington is 4-12 ATS after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Utes are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Utah is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 road games. Roll with the Utes Saturday.