5* Atlanta Falcons

San Francisco vs. Atlanta, 01/20/2013 15:00 EDT, Score: 28 - 24

Point Spread: +5/-110 Atlanta

Sportsbook: Bovada

Result: Win

Taking the FALCONS here with the points and will grab ML +180 also. Has there every been a 1 seed that has been disrespected more than the Falcons. Some of that might be deserved. The blew a big lead last week vs Seattle. They haven't 'played' any 'real' teams. Listen. You can only play who is on the schedule. Falcons have beat 13 of 16 in the regular season. Now 14-3 after last week. Regardless of how they won, they won. Matt Ryan and HC Mike Smith finally got their play-off victory. The Niners come to town with a bandwagon overflowing with public money. The public has been hammering SF all week. This week has jumped to 5 in some spots. They are still being led by a rookie QB, no matter how great he looked last week. That was a near perfect game on all parts by SF. They are now forced to come to the east coast. Granted. They rolled NE here earlier in the year. But it is still a long trip. They are laying points to a team that is 33-6 SU with their QB under center here at home. That is pretty impressive. This isn't CFB where teams can run off 40 game home win streaks because they can get some small schools in for a payday. The Falcons are beating NFL teams in those games. Falcons have a run game with power back Michael Turner and scat-back Jacquizz Rogers is a great change of pace guy who has been getting more and more looks as the season has progressed. They have a HOFer TE that Ryan can always look to bail himself out with. They also have a pretty good pair of WRs in Roddy White and Julio Jones. Both those guys went over 1100 yards with 17TDs between them. Pretty sure that DC Mike Nolan would love to stick it to his former club. Yes the defense has been spotty. But they have faced Cam Newton the last 2 years and RGIII this season. So QBs will wheels aren't exactly a novelty to the defense. For me, I would have to think that DC Nolan won't be shocked that Kaepernick can actually run, especially after a record breaking 180 rushing yard performance last week. Call me crazy, and Lord knows that I have been called a lot worse. But I think the Falcons get us the OUTRIGHT win this afternoon. This reminds me a lot of last years playoffs. SF beat the offense-led New Orleans Saints and Drew Brees. 36-32. They then lost to the Giants 20-17. Last week, the offense-led Packers with Aaron Rodgers went down 45-31. Perhaps they are a little cocky thinking they beat the 'better' team already. I can't argue 33-6 SU with this QB/HC combo. 5* ATLANTA FALCONS +5/ ML +180