3* on Oregon State +

Oregon State vs. UCLA, 01/17/2013 21:00 EDT, Score: 64 - 74

Point Spread: +14½/-110 Oregon State

Sportsbook: BETONLINE

Result: Win

3* on Oregon State +



This is a look ahead spot for UCLA as they will face Oregon on Saturday and Arizona next Thursday, and those are the two teams the Bruins have to worry about in the Pac-12, not the 10-6 Beavers who have lost their first three conference games by double digits.



I like how these teams matchup too. Oregon State main problem in the Pac-12 has been rebounding, but the Bruins aren't necessarily a good rebounding team. Both teams rarely foul, but both do a good job of drawing fouls. Plus, both squads play pretty solid on the defensive end of the floor, so this game should be somewhat low scoring and not a shootout.



I think the odds makers have over-adjusted this line a bit, since the Bruins haven't beat anyone by more than 13 points in a month and have been playing close games even against teams they should have beat easily.



A solid system supporting our play says to play against double digit favorites after nine or more straight wins. This system is 196-119 (62.2%) over the last five years. You also want to play on road underdogs off two straight double digit home losses when playing a team with two straight conference wins. This situation is 41-12 (77.4%) since 1997.