15* Big Ten GAME OF THE NIGHT on Penn State +11.5
Michigan State vs. Penn State,
01/16/2013 19:00 EDT,
Score: 81 - 72
Point Spread: +11½/-110 Penn State
The Penn State Nittany Lions are showing excellent value at home tonight against the Michigan State Spartans. I'll gladly back them as a double-digit home underdog as they look to build on their 7-3 home record this season.
Michigan State is one of the most overvalued teams in the country, which is obvious due to its 5-9 ATS record. It is ranked in the Top 25 due to a fortunate 14-3 start that has seen eight wins by 12 points or less. That includes a 66-56 home win over Nebraska as a 17-point favorite last time out.
This is a huge letdown spot for the Spartans considering their next four games after this will be against Top 25 opponents. There's no question these players are looking ahead to those four games and overlooking the Nittany Lions tonight. Even coach Tom Izzo believes that is very possible.
"I worry that maybe we're looking at (the records of the opposition)," Izzo said. "I guess we've got one more game and then we've got (four of the next five) against ranked teams or whatever. So, maybe we'll play better then, but we've got to play better Wednesday to win on the road."
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. The home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. Penn State beat Michigan State 61-48 in its last home meeting.
Michigan State is 0-7 ATS after allowing 65 points or less 2 straight games this season. The Spartans are 0-6 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite this season. Michigan State is 1-8 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. These four trends combine for a 25-1 system backing the Nittany Lions. Roll with Penn State Wednesday.