15* NBA Western Conference Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Grizzlies UNDER 188

Memphis vs. San Antonio, 01/16/2013 20:30 EDT, Score: 82 - 103

Total: -115/+188 Under

Sportsbook: Bovada

Result: Win

This total has been set too high tonight in a battle between the San Antonio Spurs and Memphis Grizzlies. This has become one of the better rivalries in the league over the past few seasons due to their 7-game playoff series back in 2011. The defensive intensity is at an all-time high when these teams get together.

I believe this total has been inflated due to the last two meetings, which both went to overtime. These teams just played on January 11th with Memphis winning 101-98 (OT) at home. The Grizzlies led 95-92 before Tony Parker hit a game-tying 3-pointer at the buzzer to force OT.

The first meeting of the season between these teams took place on December 1st with San Antonio winning 99-95 (OT). This game was tied 87-87 at the end of regulation for 174 combined points.

Essentially, five of the last six meetings in this series saw 187 or less combined points at the end of regulation (not counting Parker's buzzer-beater). Having just played each other less than a week ago, these teams are very familiar with one another, and familiarity breeds low-scoring, defensive battles.

Another big factor in favor of the UNDER is the fact that Manu Ginobli will be out the next 10-14 days after suffering a Grade 1 hamstring strain on January 13th against the Timberwolves. Ginobli is one of the team's leading scorers, and he's great at penetrating the lane and creating easy shots for teammates. His loss certainly benefits the UNDER.

The UNDER is 41-20-1 in Grizzlies last 62 overall. Memphis is 10-1 to the UNDER versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game over the last 2 seasons. San Antonio is 16-2 to the UNDER in home games in January games over the last 3 seasons.

The UNDER is 6-0 in Spurs last 6 games playing on 2 days rest. The UNDER is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 home games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 games following a ATS loss. Memphis is 7-0 to the UNDER after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season. These five trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.