20* Rockets/Mavs ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Dallas -4

Houston vs. Dallas, 01/16/2013 20:00 EDT, Score: 100 - 105

Point Spread: -4/-105 Dallas

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Win

The Dallas Mavericks are one of the most underrated teams in the league due to their 16-23 start. I have backed them with success as a free pick in each of their last three games with a 117-112 win at Sacramento, a 104-83 home win over Memphis, and a 113-98 home victory over Minnesota.

Dallas makes the premium card Wednesday as my featured top play as a small home favorite over the Houston Rockets tonight. Dirk Nowitzki is finally healthy and he has returned to the starting line-up, which is the biggest reason for the Mavericks' turnaround.

Houston is overvalued due to getting off to a 21-14 start, but it has come back down to reality here of late. The Rockets have lost four straight to fall to 21-18 on the season. They'll lose No. 5 in a row tonight in blowout fashion at Dallas.

This is a very tired Rockets team, and that is really starting to show of late. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is about as tough a situation as you will find in the NBA. They simply won't have the legs to keep up with the Mavericks tonight.

Dallas simply owns Houston. It has won eight straight meetings with the Rockets will going 7-1 ATS in the process. In fact, it has covered six straight meetings in this series dating back to 2011.

Houston is 1-11 ATS in road games after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Rockets are 1-9 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. Houston is 25-8 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.