20* CBB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Drake +20.5

Drake vs. Creighton, 01/08/2013 20:05 EDT, Score: 61 - 91

Point Spread: +20½/-110 Drake

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

The oddsmakers have missed their mark badly in this game between Drake and Creighton. The Bulldogs are clearly undervalued headed into this one as a 20.5-point underdog. I like them to give the overvalued Blue Jays a run for their money in this one.

Drake is just 6-8 on the season against a very tough schedule. Its eight losses have come against quality opponents in Detroit (by 6), California (by 3), Xavier (by 4), St. Mary's (by 15), Iowa State (by 9), Bradley (by 9), Wichita State (by 12) and Missouri State (by 12). As you can see, none of its eight losses came by more than 15 points.

Creighton is overvalued due to its 14-1 start and No. 13 ranking in the country. There's no question that this is a very good team that will be a tough out in the NCAA Tournament, but it has created expectations for itself due to this fast start that it cannot live up to.

I faded Creight on Saturday by taking Indiana State +14.5 with success, and I'll do the same tonight with Drake. Only four times this season have the Blue Jays won by more than 20 points. Those four games were against Presbyterian, Longwood and St. Josephs and Nebraska.

Drake has played Creighton tough over the last several years. Each of the last 13 meetings dating back to 2006 were decided by 17 points or less with Drake actually winning five of those outright. This makes for a perfect 13-0 system backing the Bulldogs pertaining to tonight's line of 20.5.

This play falls into a system that is 41-11 (78.8%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet against home teams as a favorite or pick (CREIGHTON) - off 2 straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off 2 consecutive home losses of 10 points or more.

This play falls into another system that is 47-13 (78.3% ATS) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 20 or more points (DRAKE) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival against opponent off a win against a conference rival. Take Drake Tuesday.