15* Texans/Patriots AFC Late-Afternoon BAILOUT on Houston +10
Houston vs. New England,
01/13/2013 16:30 EDT,
Score: 28 - 41
Point Spread: +10/-125 Houston
The fact of the matter is that these teams share identical records at 12-4 heading into the postseason. Houston righted the ship with a 19-13 home victory over Cincinnati in its playoff opener last week in game that was more of a blowout than the final score would indicate. Houston outgained Cincinnati 420-198 for the game in arguably its most dominant performance of the season.
With their confidence and swagger back, the Texans will be much more prepared this time around to go into New England and put up a fight. Sure, the Patriots won the first meeting by 28, but the Texans will learn from that loss and it will help them heading into the rematch. Meanwhile, the Patriots could easily be overconfident in this one after such a lopsided win the first go-round.
A closer look at the numbers shows that the Texans are still one of the most dominant teams in the league. They rank 7th in the league in total offense at 374.2 yards per game, and 7th in total defense at 316.1 yards per game. They clearly have the better stop unit in this one as the Patriots rank just 25th in total defense at 373.6 yards per game. We all know that defense wins out in the playoffs.
The Texans were only an underdog twice all season. They opened as a 3.5-point dog in their first meeting at New England before it got bet up to 5.5. This line of 10 is clearly an overreaction from that first meeting, and the value is certainly with the road dog this time around.
This play falls into a system that is 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) – revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, with a winning record in the second half of the season.
Houston is 10-0 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. New England is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games when playing on two weeks or more of rest. The Texans are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record. The Patriots are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 playoff games. Take the Texans Sunday.