25* NFL Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay Packers +3
Green Bay vs. San Francisco,
01/12/2013 20:00 EDT,
Score: 31 - 45
Point Spread: +3/-105 Green Bay
The Packers are finally getting healthy at the right time. Charles Woodson just returned last week, and they had all of their receivers healthy for the first time all year. Green Bay dominated Minnesota 24-10 in the first round in a game that was even more of a blowout than the final score would indicate.
Green Bay will want revenge from its loss to the 49ers in Week 1. Aaron Rodgers really had a good game, making this 49ers’ defense look average. He completed 30 of 44 passes for 303 yards with two touchdowns and only one interception in the loss. After all, the Packers have really owned this series. They have won eight of their last nine meetings with the 49ers.
Look for the running game to take some of the pressure off of Rodgers and make his job easier this time around. After averaging just 89.1 rushing yards per game through the first eight games , the Packers averaged an eye-opening 122.6 yards per game on the ground over their final eight games of the regular season. That balance will make them much tougher to defend this time around.
This play falls into a system that is 34-10 (77.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (GREEN BAY) – revenging a loss against opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).
The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games. The 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games. Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 meetings in San Francisco. The Packers are 8-1 ATS vs. good teams – outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons.
Mike McCarthy is 10-1 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.5 rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season as the coach of Green Bay. The Packers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record. Green Bay is 10-2 in its last 12 games overall with only one loss coming by more than 3 points. Bet the Packers Saturday.