RV: 16-0 BCS 6* NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP SYSTEM SIDE
Alabama vs. Notre Dame,
01/07/2013 20:30 EDT,
Score: 42 - 14
Point Spread: +10/-115 Notre Dame
On Monday in the National Championship game we will back the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Game 270 at 8:30 eastern. This just seems like too many points to give a team that appears to be evenly matched. Bama has a 18 yard offensive edge and 40 yard defensive edge. However Notre Dame has played a tougher schedule. The points more than make up for Notre Dame not having played in this big a game. We note that Bowl fogs of More than 7 that allow less than 15 points per game are 16-0 ats vs an opponent that allows more than 10 points, with several dog wins in that group the past 3-+ years. Dame has a 5-0 record vs top 30 teams while Bama is 3-1. Favorites in the same bowl as last season have failed to cover 80% of the time if they did not cover the spread by more than 14 points in their last game. The Dog between #1 and #2 teams is 20-8 ats, regardless of whether its regular season or a bowl game. Alabama has failed to cover 3 of 4 times as a neutral favorite from 7.5 to 10 and 3 of 4 times vs Non conference teams. Independent teams are 8-0 ats vs an opponent off a spread loss. Coach Saban has 3 wins over Dame but that stat in not of much relevance in this one. The Hardest thing to do is give a team their first loss, while I think Bama will win this one I cannot see it being by double digits. Look for a close game with a Notre Dame hanging around for the cover. Take Notre Dame.
BONUS PLAY on the Under 40.5