15* Bulls/Heat ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 189.5

Chicago vs. Miami, 01/04/2013 20:00 EDT, Score: 96 - 89

Total: -105/+189½ Under

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Win

The oddsmakers have inflated this total tonight between the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat. This game will be played on National TV on ESPN, which will bring out the best effort defensively from both teams. I don't expect either team to top 95 points in this one.

The Chicago Bulls don't need to be on National TV to play defense. It is their specialty as they are limiting opponents to just 91.6 points/game this season. However, they are scoring a mere 92.4 points/game, combining with their opponents to average 184.0 points/game on the season.

Miami has been playing solid defense at home, giving up 96.9 points/game. It will have no trouble shutting down this mediocre Bulls' offensive attack tonight. The Heat are one of the highest-scoring teams in the league, but rarely do they face a defense as stiff as the one they'll be up against tonight.

A look at the recent history between these teams indicates that this total has been inflated. Chicago and Miami have combined for 190 or less points (at the end of regulation) in 10 of their last 11 meetings. That includes an 83-72 home victory for Miami in their most recent meeting, and a 96-86 (OT) home win for Chicago in their previous meeting in a game that was tied 84-84 at the end of regulation.

The UNDER is Under is 20-7 in Bulls last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 15-4 in Bulls last 19 games as an underdog. The UNDER is 6-1 in Heat last 7 home games. The UNDER is 9-1 in Bulls last 10 games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.