5* NCAAF Bowl Game of the Year

Alabama vs. LSU, 01/09/2012 20:30 EDT, Score: 21 - 0

Point Spread: +1/-115 Alabama

Sportsbook: Bovada

Result: Win

5* NCAAF Bowl Game of the Year (ESPN) on Alabama +1
Alabama should have won the first meeting. The fact that it didn't, however, plays in our favor as the Tide will be that much more motivated.

Alabama lost the first meeting 9-6 in OT but outgained LSU by 56 yards and missed 4 field goals.

LSU's defense has received a lot of attention, but it is Alabama's defense that is the best in the land. The Tide rank No. 1 in both total and scoring defense with 191.2 yards and 8.8 points allowed per game. They rank first against the run and pass with 74.9 and 116.3 yards allowed respectively.

While LSU has the second-best defense in the nation, Bama has a considerable edge on the offensive side of the football. It ranks 31st in the country in total offense with 433.4 yards per game while LSU ranks 73rd with 374.5 yards per game.

I expect Alabama's rushing attack, which ranks 14th in the country with 219.8 yards per game (5.6 yards per carry), to ultimately be the difference maker. LSU is just 8-19 ATS when matched up against good rushing teams averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards per carry under coach Miles. Bet Bama.