15* T'Wolves/Nuggets NBA Thursday ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +8
Minnesota vs. Denver,
01/03/2013 21:00 EDT,
Score: 101 - 97
Point Spread: +8/-105 Minnesota
The betting public has jumped all over the Denver Nuggets tonight. This line opened at 6.5 in most places and has already been bet up to 8. I'm going to fade the public and back the Minnesota Timberwolves showing excellent value here tonight.
Denver is overvalued because it just recently put an end to the Los Angeles Cliippers' 17-game winning streak with a 92-78 home victory on Tuesday. That win has the public all over them in this one, and I fully expect the Nuggets to suffer a big emotional letdown after such a huge victory. Also, starting PG Ty Lawson is doubtful to play with an Achilles injury.
Minnesota comes in undervalued after its 84-106 loss at Utah last night. That was arguably the worst game the Timberwolves have played all season, and there's no question they will be motivated to bounce back with a win tonight. I know they are playing a back-to-back, but this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days, so fatigue won't be a factor.
Minnesota has played Denver very tough in recent meetings. The Nuggets have only beaten the Timberwolves once by more than 7 points in the last six meetings. Minnesota lost 107-113 and 103-101 (OT) in its last two trips to Denver, respectively.
The road team is 20-5-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings, and the Timberwolves are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Denver. Minnesota is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. It is also 12-3 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Timberwolves Thursday.