Joe D'Amico's NCAAF Sugar Bowl Diamond Play of the Year

Louisville vs. Florida, 01/02/2013 20:30 EDT, Score: 33 - 23

Point Spread: -14½/-105 Florida

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

Today's winner is Florida over Louisville. This is my Sugar Bowl Diamond Play of the Year.

Florida went 11-1 on the season with their only loss (keeping them from the BCS Title game) to Georgia, 17-6. The Gators committed an uncharacteristic 6 TO's and still only lost by 9. UF led the SEC in TO margin (tied with Miss State) at plus -17. The Gators took down such notables as Texas A&M and South Carolina. They also defeated Tennessee, LSU, and FSU, all as an underdog. QB, Driskell had some issue early in the season but that was due to injuries on the OL, which is now 100% healthy. The focal point of their offense is RB, Gillislee (1104 YR and 10 TDs). UF averaged 194 YPG on the ground and in their final game of the season, they rushed for 244 yards vs. an FSU stop-unit that ranked #2 against the run. UL's defense gave up 174 rushing YPG in Big East play. They will have trouble here as their front 7 allows over 151 YPG on the ground. Overall, the Cardinals eked by the mediocre Bearcats, Bulls, and Tar Heels. And lost 2 of their final 3, to Syracuse and Connecticut, both as a favorite. Louisville has the 100th ranked rushing offense. Things will get worse tonight against Florida's run-stuffing stop-unit. QB Bridgewater's only asset is RB, Wright, who has only out up 740 YR this season. The Gator "D" hasn't allowed more than 26 points to any opponent TY. They are #3 in Total Scoring @ 12.9 PPG, #5 in Yards Allowed, and led the SEC with 19 INTs. The defense allows a mere 186 PY per game and yielded only 5 TD passes this year. They held A&M and Manziel to 17 points, intercepted Georgia's QB, Murray 3 times, and picked-off FSU's Manuel 4 times. Bridgewater is young and has very little experience under pressure like we will face here. If you recall, the QB tossed 3 INTs in LYs Bowl loss to NC State. One more fact… Louisville owns one of the nation's worst return squads, averaging just 17.5 YPR. The Gators are 22-9 ATS their L31 non-Conference games, 8-3 ATS their L11 neutral site games, and 4-0 ATS their L4 Bowl games. Take Florida. Thank you.