15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Brooklyn Nets +9.5

Brooklyn vs. San Antonio, 12/31/2012 19:00 EDT, Score: 73 - 104

Point Spread: +9½/-110 Brooklyn

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

The Brooklyn Nets needed a spark and they've gotten it with a coaching change. Avery Johnson has been fired, and interim head coach P.J. Carlesimo has taken over. He has led the Nets to back-to-back wins by a combined 19 points.

I look for the Nets to give the San Antonio Spurs a run for their money tonight. The Spurs will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days, so this is a very tough situation for them.

This play falls into a system that is 27-5 (84.4%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road underdogs (BROOKLYN) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.

Brooklyn is way better than it has shown in recent weeks, and as a result it is undervalued heading into this contest tonight. Roll with the Nets Monday.