15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Blazers UNDER 194.5

Cleveland vs. Portland, 01/08/2012 21:00 EDT, Score: 78 - 98

Total: -108/+194½ Under

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Win

I'm siding with the UNDER in this game Sunday between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Portland Trail Blazers. Oddsmakers have inflated the number here. Portland is a strong defensive team that likes to play the half-court game. They will control the tempo at home tonight in a slowed-down contest.

The Cavs aren't an offensive juggernaut by any means, and they get after it defensively, too. Cleveland is scoring 97.1 points and allowing 93.3 points for an average combined score of 190.4 points/game. The Blazers are scoring 99.1 points and allowing 95.4 points for an average combined score of 194.5 points/game. Given both team's averages, you can see why there is some value with this UNDER tonight.

Cleveland is 34-17 to the UNDER in road games off an upset win as a road underdog since 1996. The UNDER is 7-0 in Cavaliers last 7 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 7-1 in Trail Blazers last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. These last three trends make for a 18-1 (95%) system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.