3* GoDaddy Bowl SMASH

Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois, 01/08/2012 21:00 EDT, Score: 20 - 38

Point Spread: -1½/-105 Arkansas State

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

3* GoDaddy Bowl SMASH (ESPN) on Arkansas State -1.5
In a matchup of two explosive offenses, I'll side with the team that has the better defense. The Red Wolves rank 21st nationally in total defense with 325.7 yards allowed per game and 14th in the country in scoring defense with 19.3 points allowed per contest. The Huskies, meanwhile, rank 89th in both total and scoring defense with 418.1 yards and 31.1 points allowed per game.

Arkansas State has been undervalued by odds makers all season and its 10-2 ATS in lined games this season as a result. It is also 6-0 ATS this season when checking into a contest with 3 covers in its last 4 games. It's also worth noting that the Red Wolves are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.

The Huskies are a poor 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning record, 1-8 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as an underdog.

In a game that could very well end up being a shootout, I like the Arkansas State "D" to come up with more stops. Take the Red Wolves.