25* BCS Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Louisville +14
Louisville vs. Florida,
01/02/2013 20:30 EDT,
Score: 33 - 23
Point Spread: +14/-105 Louisville
The Florida Gators aren’t built for blowing teams out. They have a lackluster offense that averages just 26.7 points per game while ranking 99th in the country in total yards per game (338.0). A closer look at their schedule shows that they have struggled when favored heavily against lesser opponents.
In its season opener, Florida beat Bowling Green 27-14 as a 28-point home favorite. That was a 17-14 game going into the 4th quarter. The Gators also let Missouri hang around, winning by a final of 14-7 as a 17.5-point home favorite. They beat LA-Lafayette 27-20 at home as a 27-point favorite, and Jacksonville State 23-0 at home as a 37.5-point favorite. This team simply has not performed well in this role.
Louisville features an explosive offense that averages 31.0 points per game and 425.7 total yards per game. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater simply willed his team to a Big East title this season. He completed 69.0 percent of his passes for 3,452 yards with 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions while playing his best late in games.
The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS when playing against a top-level team with a winning percentage of at least 75% over the last 3 seasons. Louisville is 8-1 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. The Cardinals are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 non-conference games. The Gators are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Louisville in the Sugar Bowl Wednesday.
Recommendation: Buy to +14