15* Georgia Tech/USC Sun Bowl No-Brainer on UNDER 64
Georgia Tech vs. Southern Cal,
12/31/2012 14:00 EDT,
Score: 21 - 7
Total: -110/+64 Under
The books have set the bar too high in this Sun Bowl showdown between Georgia Tech and USC. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER in a game that I foresee neither team scoring more than 31 points.
USC faced some very good rushing teams this season as their opponents averaged 180 yards and 4.4/carry on the ground in 2012. The Trojans clearly have an above-average run D considering they held their opponents to 156 yards/game and 4.0/carry. That's huge considering Georgia Tech runs the triple-option and almost exclusive relies on the run.
USC had a solid offense this season under the guidance of quarterback Matt Barkley. However, Barkley will miss this game due to a shoulder injury, meaning that Max Wittek will get a second straight start in his place.
Things did not go well for Wittek in his first career start as he went just 14 of 23 passing for 186 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in a 13-22 home loss to Notre Dame in USC's season finale.
Georgia Tech came up with arguably its best defensive performance of the season in the ACC Championship. It held Florida State to just 21 points and 328 total yards while forcing three turnovers in a 15-21 loss. I look for it to build off of that performance and to keep Wittek in company in check.
Georgia Tech is 8-1 to the UNDER after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 6-0 in Trojans last 6 December games. The UNDER is 6-0 in Trojans last 6 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. These three trends combine for a 20-1 (95%) system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in the Sun Bowl Monday.