Joe D'Amico's NCAAF Holiday Bowl Mismatch

Baylor vs. UCLA, 12/27/2012 21:45 EDT, Score: 49 - 26

Point Spread: -3/-110 UCLA

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

Thursday's winner is UCLA over Baylor. This is my Mismatch play.

Let's count this as a home game for UCLA. The Bruins were 9-2 before dropping back-to-back contests to Stanford. QB, Hundley (68.2% CR, 3411 YP, and a 26/11 TD/INT ratio) and RB, Franklin (1701 YR and 13 TDs) lead the spread attack that posts 35.1 PPG and will exploit a Baylor "D" that ranks 119th in Total Yards (513.8 YPG) 118th on Passing Yards, allowing 38.2 PPG, with only 13 sacks on the season. The Bears are far away from home here. Their offense averages 44.1 PPG and rattled off three big wins to close the season. Let's face it, they are in a Conference known for high-scoring and very little defense. They must face the Bruins 3-4 stop-unit that has wreaked havoc on opposing QBs for 43 sacks and give up only 25.9 PPG. Baylor doesn't have the greatest ground game to offset the pass rush here. QB, Florence will be on his heels here and add to his 13 INTs. Take UCLA. Thank you.