15* Baylor/UCLA Holiday Bowl BAILOUT on Baylor +3

Baylor vs. UCLA, 12/27/2012 21:45 EDT, Score: 49 - 26

Point Spread: +3/-105 Baylor

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Win

The Bears are playing the better football coming into this game. They were absolutely sensational to finish out the season, winning four of their final five games while going a perfect 5-0 against the spread in the process. Their only loss during this stretch came at Oklahoma 34-42 as a 21-point underdog. They beat Kansas 41-14, then-No. 1 Kansas State 52-24, Texas Tech 52-45, and Oklahoma State 41-34, so it’s not like they were beating up on cupcakes.

UCLA will be deflated following back-to-back losses to Stanford to close out the season. While Baylor comes in with a great mindset having won four of their last five to become bowl eligible, UCLA will have a hard time recovering from its 3-point loss to the Cardinal in the Pac-12 title game. That loss cost the Bruins a chance to play in the Rose Bowl, so they can’t be all that excited to be playing in the Holiday Bowl.

Baylor features a dynamic offense that ranks right up there with Oregon. It is scoring an average of 44.1 points per game while ranking 1st in the country in total offense at 578.7 yards per game. UCLA’s biggest weakness is a stop unit that ranks 74th in the country in total defense at 410.0 yards per game. The Bears should continue to score in bunches just as they did to close out the season.

The Bears are 6-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams – scoring 31 or more points/game this season. The Bruins are 2-10 ATS in road games versus excellent offensive teams – averaging at least 6.25 yards/play since 1992. UCLA is 0-6 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Take Baylor Thursday.