Sunday's NFL Free Pick: Houston Texans -7.5

Minnesota vs. Houston, 12/23/2012 13:00 EDT, Score: 23 - 6

Point Spread: -7½/-105 Houston

Sportsbook: JustBet.cx

Result: Loss

Sunday's NFL Free Pick: Houston Texans -7.5

While the Texans are sitting comfortably on top the AFC standings at 12-2, they still have some work to do in order to secure a first round bye. They lead the Broncos (11-3) by just one-game and the Patriots (10-4) by only two. Due to the fact that they beat Denver in the regular season, they would lock up a first round bye with a win over the Vikings. A loss against Minnesota and the Texans could be faced with having to beat the Colts on the road in the final week of the season. I think it’s pretty safe to say that the Texans are going to do everything in their power to win this game.

With the Vikings huge win at St Louis and the incredible run that Peterson is having, you have to believe that Minnesota is a little overvalued right now. The Vikings have lost five games this season by at least 9-points, four of which have come in their last seven games.

If Houston can simply slow down Peterson and not allow him to break off one of those 50-yard touchdowns runs, the Vikings could find it very difficult to score against the Texans. Peterson’s success on the ground has covered up some very poor play from starting quarterback Christian Ponder. If the Texans can get up early and force Minnesota to abandon the run, they should be able to take advantage of Ponder and a Vikings offense that is playing without their top playmaker at wide receiver in Percy Harvin.

Minnesota is just 2-10 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons, while the Texans are a dominant 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last two seasons. BET THE TEXANS!