5* Ball St/UCF Beef O Brady Over/Under Blue Chip Top Play

Ball State vs. Central Florida, 12/21/2012 19:30 EDT, Score: 17 - 38

Total: -107/+61½ Over

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

5* Ball St/UCF Beef O Brady Over/Under Blue Chip Top Play: OVER 61.5

I look for both teams to have a lot of success offensively tonight. Ball State features a dynamic offense that ranks 30th in scoring (35.0 ppg) and 22nd in total offense (471.4 ypg). A dominant offensive line keys Ball State's ability to move the chains and put up points. That's why I'm not worried about UCF and their defense slowing down the Cardinals.

While I'm confident Ball State will be able to score consistently on the Knights, I also expect the Cardinals defense to make it very easy on UCF. Ball State doesn't exactly offer a whole lot of resistance defensively. They finished up allowing 31.5 ppg on 459.7 ypg. They couldn't stop the run (205.8 ypg) or the pass (253.9 ypg). The Knights know a thing or two about taking advantage of soft defenses. They scored at least 31 points or more in 9 of their 13 games.

The OVER is 9-1 in UCF's last 10 games when they are listed as the favorite and 11-2 in their last 13 games vs a defense that allows 31+ points/game! BET THE OVER!