3* NCAAB SMASH on Nicholls State +18

Nicholls State vs. Utah State, 12/20/2012 22:05 EDT, Score: 72 - 79

Point Spread: +18/-105 Nicholls State

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Win

3* NCAAB SMASH on Nicholls State +18
The Colonels are just 1-5 on the season but a matchup with 6-1 Utah State won't have them shaking in their boots. That's because they have already stepped on the floor with Vanderbilt, Missouri and Michigan State. The Aggies haven't faced nearly as challenging of a schedule. Besides, they have been consistently overvalued against teams like Nicholls State that have been outscored by a wide margin. Consider that Utah State is on a 2-11 ATS slide versus teams that are outscored by an average of 12.0 points or more per game. They have won these games on average but only by 13.6 points.

In addition, plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points after a game in which they allowed their opponent to shoot 55.0 percent from the field or higher, provided they are an average shooting team (42.5-45%) and are up against a good defensive team (40-42.5%), are 76-35 ATS since 1997, 18-2 ATS the last 3 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. This system basically shows the way oddsmakers tend to undervalue teams following a poor defensive effort when they are matched up against good defensive teams.

Look for this experienced Nicholls State squad to keep this one within the number.