25* NFL Wild Card Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Lions +11

Detroit vs. New Orleans, 01/07/2012 20:00 EDT, Score: 28 - 45

Point Spread: +11/-110 Detroit

Sportsbook: Bovada

Result: Loss

The Detroit Lions are fully capable of pulling off the upset over the New Orleans Saints Saturday provided they don't beat themselves. That's precisely what they did in their first meeting with the Saints in a game that was much closer than the 31-17 final score would indicate.

Detroit actually outgained New Orleans 466-438 in the Superdome on December 4th, but they simplpy beat themselves with untimely penalties. The Lions committed 11 penalties for 107 yards, while the Saints were only flagged three times for 30 yards. Matthew Stafford has his way with their defense, throwing for 408 yards in the loss.

I have all the confidence in the world that the Lions are going to be able to move the ball at will once again, and this time they won't shoot themselves in the foot. This is one of the most dangerous teams in the league heading into the playoffs with the potential to beat anyone if they just play their game and don't beat themselves.

This play falls into a system that is 28-9 (75.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet on road revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. The Lions are 16-7-2 ATS in their last 25 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. The Saints are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. Bet Detroit Saturday.