15* Spurs/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 209.5
San Antonio vs. Utah,
12/12/2012 22:30 EDT,
Score: 96 - 99
Total: -110/+209½ Under
Oddsmakers have inflated this total due to recent performances from both teams that were very high-scoring. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER in a game that will be nationally televised on ESPN, which always tends to bring out stronger defensive intensity by both teams.
San Antonio just beat Houston 134-126 in overtime for 260 combined points. Utah just beat the Lakers 117-110 on the road for 227 combined points. Both the Rockets and Lakers have been atrocious on the defensive end recently, which is the biggest reason for those high-scoring affairs. Oddsmakers have been forced to set this total too high based on those recent performances, knowing that the betting public would jump on the OVER if they didn't.
Taking a look at this series between the Spurs and Jazz, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. Each of the last six meetings in this series have seen 210 or less combined points. Six of the last seven meetings in Utah have seen 208 or less combined points. Utah is only giving up 93.6 points/game at home this season, while San Antonio is yielding 97.3 points/game in all games this year.
The Jazz are 18-5 to the UNDER in home games after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games since 1996. Utah is 70-47 to the UNDER in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5 since 1996. The Jazz are 22-10 to the UNDER in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 games playing on 2 days rest. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.