20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nets/Raptors UNDER 188

Brooklyn vs. Toronto, 12/12/2012 19:00 EDT, Score: 94 - 88

Total: -110/+188 Under

Sportsbook: TopBet

Result: Win

There are two main reasons that I believe this game finishes well below the posted total tonight. Both the Brooklyn Nets and the Toronto Raptors will struggle to reach 90 points because of these two factors.

First, Brooklyn is a tired team right now as it will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days. I look for the Nets to play at a slower tempo offensively because of it. This is an excellent team defensively as the Nets are allowing just 94.0 points/game overall and 91.1 points/game on the road. They are only scoring 93.0 points/game on the road as well.

Toronto is likely to be without two of its top three scorers tonight. Andrea Bargnani (16.0 PPG) is doubtful with an elbow injury, while Kyle Lowry (15.8 PPG, 5.8 APG) is doubtful with a tricep injury. Not having Bargnani's shooting and Lowry's ability to run the offense and create open looks for teammates is really going to hamper Toronto's offense tonight.

Toronto is 10-1 to the UNDER in home games after a game where they made 85% of their free throws or better over the last 2 seasons. We're seeing an average of 176.5 points/game in this situation. The UNDER is 20-5-2 in Brooklyn's last 27 road games. The UNDER is 17-4 in Raptors last 21 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.