3* NBA SMASH on Nuggets +1.5

Denver vs. Indiana, 12/07/2012 19:00 EDT, Score: 92 - 89

Point Spread: +1½/-105 Denver

Sportsbook: TopBet

Result: Win

3* NBA SMASH on Nuggets +1.5
The Nuggets have lost four of their last five, but three of those losses came by four points or fewer. Motivated by those narrow defeats, I expect Denver to take out its frustrations on an Indiana team it has owned.

The Nuggets have won two in a row and 12 of their last 15 against the Pacers. They are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings and 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Indiana.

Denver has been a strong play on the road where it is 56-38 ATS over the last 3 seasons. It is 44-27 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons and 40-24 ATS as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Nuggets are even 35-16 ATS in their last 51 road games versus a team with a winning home record.

The Pacers check in off back-to-back wins and covers but are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. They are also 10-26 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Take Denver.