20* Texans/Pats ESPN Monday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Houston +4
Houston vs. New England,
12/10/2012 20:30 EDT,
Score: 14 - 42
Point Spread: +4/-120 Houston
The Houston Texans have been the best team in the league all season in my opinion. I look for them to go out and make a statement Monday against the New England Patriots and win this game outright. I'll just take the points for some extra insurance in a game that could easily be decided by a field goal either way.
A closer look at the numbers shows that Houston is the better team in this one. It ranks 4th in the league in total offense (388.5 yards/game) and 6th in total defense (322.9 yards/game). It is outgaining opponents by an average of 65.6 yards/game on the season.
The Patriots rank 1st in the NFL in total offense (426.2 yards/game). However, they are just 26th in total defense (381.7 yards/game), outgaining opponents by 44.5 yards/game. The difference in this game is going to be Houston's ability to get more stops behind a much better defense.
New England really started to show signs of missing TE Rob Gronkowski last week. It only gained 321 total yards against Miami in a lackluster 23-16 victory. Tom Brady and company are much easier to defense when you don't have to worry about his favorite weapon, which is clearly Gronkowski, especially in the red zone.
The Texans are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. Houston is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Texans are 8-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. These three trends combine for a 23-1 (96%) system backing Houston. I know this line is +3 in a lot of places, and I still recommend the Texans at that number. Bet the Texans Monday.