5* NFC South Game of the Year on Panthers +3.5

Atlanta vs. Carolina, 12/09/2012 13:00 EDT, Score: 20 - 30

Point Spread: +3½/-110 Carolina

Sportsbook: JustBet.cx

Result: Win

5* NFC South Game of the Year on Panthers +3.5
The Falcons won the season’s first meeting but only by two points. Plus, it is significant that Carolina gave up 30 points in that contest. That’s because it is on a 28-11 against the spread run when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent that scored 28 points or more.

The Falcons are one of the top offensive teams in the NFL, but the Panthers are on an impressive 12-3 against the spread run at home versus excellent offensive teams that average 375.0 yards or more per game. This trend tightens up to a near-perfect 9-1 against the spread if the game takes place in the second half of the season. Carolina has won these 10 games by an average score of 22.4 to 18.7.

The Falcons have already locked up the NFC South division, and they have three more wins than the next-closest teams in the NFC, so they could have trouble finding motivation this week. This is also a problematic spot for them since they are coming off an emotional win against the Saints that ended a four-game losing streak in the series. They held the Saints to just 13 points but are 0-6 against the spread in their last six games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

The Falcons are one of the top passing teams in the league as they have abandoned their once balanced attack for a pass-heavy scheme. However, they likely won’t get anything easy through the air against a Carolina defense that ranks eighth in the NFL against the pass with just 218.9 yards allowed per game.

Plays on any team in the second half of the season that has a losing record and is out for revenge for an extremely close loss to an opponent of three points or less are 22-5 ATS the last five seasons. These teams have been underdogs of 4.2 points on average but have won by an average of 0.9 points. Take Carolina.