15* Bengals/Texans NFL Saturday BEST BET on Houston -3.5
Cincinnati vs. Houston,
01/07/2012 16:30 EDT,
Score: 10 - 31
Point Spread: -3½/-110 Houston
The Houston Texans are showing awesome value as just a 3-point home favorite Saturday. I did get this line in early, and I do recommend buying down to -3 just to be safe. I also want you to know that I still would take the Texans at -4 as well, which is the updated line, if you don't want to pay the extra juice to buy it down to -3.
Houston is getting no love from oddsmakers because they stumbled into the playoffs, but so did Cincinnati. The Texans didn't have a whole lot to play for down the stretch after clinching the division, so it's easy to see why they struggled a bit the last few weeks. I fully expect this team to kick it into overdrive and be ready come Saturday.
While the Texans are one of the most underrated teams coming into the playoffs, the Bengals are one of the most overrated. There's no way this team should be getting this kind of respect from oddsmakers. Cincinnati breezed to a 6-2 start thanks to playing one of the easiest schedules in the league, but their true colors showed in the second half as they went just 3-5 the rest of the way.
Houston won their first meeting with Cincinnati on the road by a final of 20-19 on December 11th. The Texans clearly outplayed the Bengals in that game as they gained 412 total yards to Cincinnati's 285. Quarterback T.J. Yates, who will be starting for the Texans Sunday, threw for 300 yards and two touchdowns to lead the Texans to victory that day.
The Texans are a perfect 6-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season. Cincinnati is 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC. Houston is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with the Bengals. These four trends make for a 18-0 system backing Houston. Roll with the Texans Saturday.