4* NFC Wild Card SMASH

Detroit vs. New Orleans, 01/07/2012 20:00 EDT, Score: 28 - 45

Point Spread: +11/-110 Detroit

Sportsbook: Bovada

Result: Loss

4* NFC Wild Card SMASH on Lions +11
I really feel the Saints are being overvalued here. They won by 14 points against Detroit a month ago, but that was a 7-point game heading into the 4th, and the Lions were playing without Suh.

Consider that plays on road teams looking to avenge a loss of 14 points or more, provided they have a winning record on the season, are an amazing 43-15 ATS the last 10 seasons. These teams have actually won the rematch by an average of 2.1 points.

The Saints have more playoff experience, but the Lions are every bit as talented and even more so on the defensive side of the football. Plus, the Lions are 16-7-2 ATS in their last 25 games as an underdog of 10.5 points or more while the Saints are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 10.5 points or more. We'll take the points.