15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Delaware +20
Delaware vs. Duke,
12/01/2012 14:00 EDT,
Score: 50 - 88
Point Spread: +20/-105 Delaware
The Duke Blue Devils are in a huge letdown spot here at home against the Delaware Blue Hens. They are coming off back-to-back wins over Top 5 teams in Louisville and Ohio State. There's no way the Blue Devils will be able to get up emotionally for this game after playing those two schools.
Delaware is one of the most underrated teams in the country. This is much better than a 2-5 team, but what matters is their 5-1 ATS record. They have yet to play a home game this season, and they have played some very good teams extremely tough on the road.
They lost at LaSalle 66-73 as a 7.5-point underdog, at Temple 75-80 as a 12-point underdog, and on a neutral court against Kansas State 63-66 as an 8.5-point dog. They also won at Virginia 59-53 as a 6-point dog. Only one of the Blue Hens' five losses has come by more than 7 points.
Duke's biggest margin of victory this season is 21 points, which came at home against Florida Gulf Coast. They also beat Georgia State at home by 19 points. I have no doubt that Delaware is better than both of those teams, thus they should be able to stay within 20 with no problem. You throw in the situation, and it's not even a question.
The Blue Devils are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games. Duke is 2-10 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The Blue Devils are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet Delaware Saturday.