15* Eagles/Cowboys NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 43

Philadelphia vs. Dallas, 12/02/2012 20:20 EDT, Score: 33 - 38

Total: -110/+43 Over

Sportsbook: TopBet

Result: Win

Oddsmakers have set the bar too low Sunday in this NFC East battle between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. I look for a similar final to the 38-23 game these teams played in their first meeting of the season on November 11th where 61 combined points were scored.

Both defenses are surrendering big points this season. Philadelphia allows 25.6 points/game overall, while Dallas gives up 23.8 points/game, including 26.2 points/game at home this year.

Both offenses rank in the top half of the league. Philadelphia is 14th in total offense at 357.2 yards/game, while Dallas is 9th at 375.6 yards/game. The Eagles are giving up 30.7 points/game in their last six contests, while the Cowboys are yielding 27.0 points/game in their last three.

Dallas is 8-1 to the OVER in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game over the last 3 seasons. We're seeing an average combined score of 58.4 points/game in this situation. The Cowboys are 10-1 OVER after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Dallas is 7-0 OVER in home games after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons. These three trends combine for a 25-2 (93%) system backing the OVER. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.