15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Indianapolis Colts +5.5
Indianapolis vs. Detroit,
12/02/2012 13:00 EDT,
Score: 35 - 33
Point Spread: +5½/-110 Indianapolis
The Colts have been underrated all season. Nobody picked this team to be 7-4 at this point, let alone win seven games all year. They are right in the middle of the AFC playoff hunt due to their surprising start. This is a team that is going to give it their all every week as they play for head coach Chuck Pagano, who is battling cancer.
Detroit has to be deflated after falling to Houston on Thanksgiving Day 34-31 in overtime for yet another heartbreaking loss. This team could suffer a hangover from that defeat as its playoff hopes have all but been crushed. Detroit does have four wins this season, but three of those came by 4 points or less. Considering the Lions have just one win all season by more than 4 points, I'll gladly side with the value and the Colts +5.
This play falls into a system that is 32-12 (72.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS) – with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season, after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers.
The Lions are 0-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Detroit is 1-9 ATS versus poor defensive teams – allowing at least 350 yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The Lions are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. These four trends combine for a 27-1 (96%) system backing Indianapolis. Take the Colts Sunday.