15* NIU/Kent State MAC Championship No-Brainer on Kent State +7.5

Northern Illinois vs. Kent State, 11/30/2012 19:00 EDT, Score: 44 - 37

Point Spread: +7½/-105 Kent State

Sportsbook: JustBet.cx

Result: Win

The Northern Illinois Huskies are way overvalued heading into this MAC Championship. Kent State has been underrated all season and should not be catching a touchdown in a game I believe they can win outright. I'll take the points for some insurance.

Northern Illinois has not been playing all that sharp of football lately. They beat Toledo 31-24 at home as a 10-point favorite on November 14th, then went on the road to beat Eastern Michigan 14-7 as a 20.5-point favorite on November 23rd. This will be their toughest test of the season thus far.

Kent State is 11-1 this season while dominating along the way. Ten of its 11 wins have come by 7 points or more. The fact that this team is 10-2 ATS on the season shows how undervalued they have been all year. They'll continue making backers money at the pay window tonight.

The biggest reason I like Kent State in this contest is its ability to stop the run. It ranks 27th in the country against the run (129.3 yards/game) while allowing 3.7 yards/carry. That's impressive considering the 12 opponents it has faced average 169 rushing yards and 4.4/carry on the season. Northern Illinois rushes for 245.0 yards/game, so stopping the run is extremely important in this one.

Kent State is 7-0 ATS after playing a conference game this season. The Golden Flashes are 6-0 ATS after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. Kent State is 7-0 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. The Golden Flashes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Kent State is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. These five trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing the Golden Flashes. Take Kent State Friday.