Joe D'Amico's NCAAF Total of the Year

Kansas State vs. Arkansas, 01/06/2012 20:00 EDT, Score: 16 - 29

Total: -110/+64 Over

Sportsbook: BookMaker

Result: Loss

Today's winner is Kansas State/Arkansas OVER. This is my NCAAF Total of the Year.

Two opposite offensive styles will appear in tonight's Cotton Bowl. Kansas State averages 33.1 PPG while Arkansas posts 37.4 PPG, thus giving both teams their stellar 10-2 records. The Wildcats run, and run, and run while the Razorbacks air attack is deadly. Offensive-minded HC, Bobby Petrino's Hogs have QB, Tyler Wilson (63.1 % CR, 22/6 TD/INT ratio). The offense tallied 13 TDs of 50 or more yards this season. However, their defense has allowed 28 plus points six times this campaign. They are 80th against the run, allowing 4.5 YPC and 174 YPG. When they face a mobile QB, the numbers worsen. K State QB, Collin Klein has 1099 YR and 26 TDR. The 'Cats will exploit the smaller Ends, OLBs, and CBs here. Klein can pass the ball good enough to keep the Arkansas stop unit from keying on the running game. Their "D" gets burned by the pass, ranking 104th. This showed in their contests against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in which they yielded 520 and 502 PYs. OVER is 5-0 ATS in the Razorbacks L5 overall, 4-0 ATS in the Razorbacks L4 games played as favorite, 36-17 ATS in the Wildcats L53 games played as an underdog, and 16-5 ATS their L21 games played overall. Take the OVER. Thank you.