4* Big Ten Championship *BEST BET* on Wisconsin +3

Nebraska vs. Wisconsin, 12/01/2012 20:15 EDT, Score: 31 - 70

Point Spread: +3½/-110 Wisconsin

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Win

4* Big Ten Championship *BEST BET* on Wisconsin +3
The Badgers may have finished third in their division behind Ohio State and Penn State after losing three of their last four games in overtime, but they won’t be lacking any confidence when they step on the field Saturday. They are the two-time defending Big Ten champions, and they will be leaving it all out there with a chance to make history. Wisconsin has never won three straight conference titles, and that’s the feat it will be gunning for.

Wisconsin finds itself in the same position it was in last season. It is playing an opponent in the conference championship game that it lost to during the regular season. Last year, the Badgers lost 37-31 to Michigan State in the regular season but avenged that loss with a 42-39 victory in the inaugural Big Ten title game.

If the Badgers could avenge that loss to Michigan State, they can avenge an earlier loss to Nebraska. They really should have won the regular season meeting against the Cornhuskers in the first place as they led that game by 17 points in the third quarter.

Nebraska has been good on offense, but Wisconsin has fared well against good offensive teams historically. Consider that the Badgers are on a 41-23 against the spread run versus teams that average 31.0 points or more per game. They have won by an average score of 26.4 to 23.6 in these contests.

Wisconsin is also on a 21-8 against the spread run versus teams that average 450.0 yards or more per game. It has won by an average score of 28.2 to 23.3 in these games.

The Badgers enter off back-to-back defeats, but the numbers suggest that’s not a good enough reason to fade them. In fact, the numbers suggest it is a reason to back them. Wisconsin is an impressive 21-9 against the spread after two or more consecutive losses the last two decades. It has won by an average score of 29.7 to 22.0 in this situation.