3* NFL Thursday Night Football SMASH on Saints +3.5

New Orleans vs. Atlanta, 11/29/2012 20:20 EDT, Score: 13 - 23

Point Spread: +3½/-108 New Orleans

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

3* NFL Thursday Night Football SMASH on Saints +3.5
The Saints have had Atlanta’s number lately. They have won each of the past four meetings, seven of the last eight and 11 of the last 13. The Saints have also won three in a row in Atlanta. The Saints are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
The Falcons last defeated New Orleans Sept. 26, 2010, earning a 27-24 victory that day. Because the loss only came by three points, the Saints have won or lost by less than the current number in eight straight games against Atlanta.
The Falcons are the better defensive team, but their defense wasn’t good enough in the first meeting. The numbers suggest it won’t be good enough this time around either. Consider that the Saints are on an 8-0 ATS run in the second half of the season versus teams that give up an average of 5.65 yards or more per play. They have won by an average score of 40.1 to 21.5 in this situation.
The Saints are also on an 8-0 ATS run in the second half of the season versus teams that allow their opponents to complete 61.0 percent or more of their passes. They have won by an average score of 35.0 to 20.8 in this situation.
The Saints have struggled on the defensive side of the football, but the Falcons haven’t been able to take advantage of poor defensive teams. In fact, they are on a 3-12 against the spread slide in the second half of the season versus poor defensive teams that allow an average of 6.0 yards or more per play. They have lost by an average score of 25.5 to 23.6 in this situation. It is also worth noting that New Orleans is on a 7-0 ATS run in the second half of the season versus good passing teams that average 235 passing yards or more per game. The Saints have won these seven by an average score of 40.6 to 20.9.
Atlanta enters with some momentum following back-to-back wins, but it is only 9-23 against the spread in home games after two or more consecutive wins the last two decades. It has lost by an average score of 22.0 to 21.2 in this situation. Take the Saints.