5* 49ers/Saints Blockbuster Best Bet Top Play
San Francisco vs. New Orleans,
11/25/2012 16:15 EDT,
Score: 31 - 21
Point Spread: -1/-107 San Francisco
5* 49ers/Saints Blockbuster Best Bet Top Play: 49ers
The 49ers looked better than I think anyone could have dreamed of last week behind second-year quarterback Colin Kaepernick. San Francisco embarrassed the Bears 32-7 and I am a firm believe in that this team will only get better with Kaepernick as the starter.
The Saints have done a remarkable job of getting back to .500 (5-5) after their 0-4 start, but I still don't think this team has enough talent to beat an elite team like the 49ers. New Orleans is 5-1 over their last five games, but all of those wins came against teams who aren't great defensively. In their only loss during that stretch they were embarrassed by the Broncos (14-34), who have one of the most underrated defenses in the entire league.
The key here is that while the Saints are playing better as a team, their defense is still one of the worst units in the league. They rank 32nd in the NFL against the run (157.8 ypg) and 31st against the pass (305.0 ypg). The key here is that horrible run defense, as they simply have no shot at slowing down the 49ers league-leading rushing attack that averages 165.3 ypg.
I have a very hard time believing the Saints will be able to keep the 49ers from scoring at will in this game. On the flip side, San Francisco has one of the best defenses in the NFL and their 2nd ranked pass defense (182.9 ypg) should be able to keep the Saints 3rd rated passing attack (296.4 ypg) from having a big game.
Adding even more value to this is the 49ers are 9-1 ATS vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score in these contest is San Francisco 31, Opponent 11. BET THE 49ERS!