4* Bills/Colts NFL No Doubt ATS Smash

Buffalo vs. Indianapolis, 11/25/2012 13:00 EDT, Score: 13 - 20

Point Spread: -3/+102 Indianapolis

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Win

4* Bills/Colts NFL No Doubt ATS Smash: Colts -3

The Colts got embarrassed on the road last weekend by the Patriots 24-59. The loss put an end to their 4-game winning streak and it really seemed to take a lot of the hype away from this team. I wasn't surprised at all to see the Colts lose that game by double-digits. Indianapolis has simply not played very well on the road and you have to expect that with a young team.

I believe the loss has set up a perfect spot to jump back on the Colts bandwagon, as their is a lot of value here with Indianapolis only laying a field goal at home. They are 4-1 at home this season with big time wins over Green Bay and Minnesota. All four of those Colts wins at Lucas Oil Stadium have come by at least a field goal.

Buffalo gained some momentum with a 19-14 home win over Miami in a national televised game on Thursday night football (NFL Network). Prior to that the Bills had lost three straight. Buffalo is just 4-6 on the season and have really struggled on the road. They are 2-4 away from home with those two wins coming against the Browns and Cardinals (needed overtime). Buffalo hasn't beat a team with a winning record all season.

I also believe the matchups favor the Colts in this one. Indianapolis has one of the best passing attacks in the NFL behind rookie Andrew Luck and the Bills secondary is suspect at best and should struggle to contain the Colts playing indoors. On the other side of the ball. Most of Buffalo's success comes on the ground. While the conception is that the Colts aren't good defensively against the run, they are allowing just 80.6 rushing yards/game over their last 5.

The Colts are 30-15 ATS vs good rushing teams - averaging >=4.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992, while the Bills are 4-13 ATS vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game since 1992. BET INDIANAPOLIS!