Sunday's Free NFL Pick: Atlanta Falcons -1

Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay, 11/25/2012 13:00 EDT, Score: 24 - 23

Point Spread: -1/-110 Atlanta

Sportsbook: Intertops

Result: Push

Sunday's Free NFL Pick: Atlanta Falcons -1

The Falcons were able to escape last Sunday’s game against Arizona with a 23-19 victory. The win improved Atlanta to 9-1 on the season and it got them back on track after a disappointing 27-31 loss at New Orleans in Week 10. As many of you know, the Falcons weren’t even close to covering the 10-point spread in that game. Atlanta has now failed to cover the number in two straight games, which has me thinking they are showing some value as a small favorite.

Atlanta has been outstanding in close games this season. Six of their nine wins this year have come by 6-points or less. Given how well Tampa Bay has played of late, you would expect a very close game on Sunday. Hard to not like the team that continues to find ways to pull out a W late in games. The Buccaneers are just 2-4 in games that have been decided by 7 points or less.

I personally think the Buccaneers are a little overrated right now. The only team they have beat this season with a winning record is Minnesota, which certainly backs that up. This is a big game for Atlanta. They can pretty much lock up the division with a win this week. They would have a four-game lead with five to play. I expect the Falcons absolute best on Sunday, especially after how bad they looked last week against Arizona. BET ATLANTA!