25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Oakland Raiders +9.5

Oakland vs. Cincinnati, 11/25/2012 13:00 EDT, Score: 10 - 34

Point Spread: +9½/-130 Oakland

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

This line is simply an overreaction from recent results between these two teams. There's no way the Bengals should be favored by 9.5 points against almost any team in the league. That's why I believe there is some serious line value with the Oakland Raiders in this one.

Public perception right now says that the Bengals are a great team because of back-to-back blowout victories over the Giants and Chiefs. With those two wins, they have created expectations against the spread that they simply cannot live up to. The betting public loves this team right now, which is why it's time to fade them.

Public perception is way down on the Oakland Raiders after three straight losses, including blowouts at the hands of the Ravens and Saints in their last two contests. Well, the Ravens and Saints are two of the best teams in the league. This will be a much easier task Sunday against the 5-5 Bengals, who I believe are way overrated.

This play falls into a system that is 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (OAKLAND) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13.

This system just goes to show you how teams that have been blown out in recent weeks tend to show excellent value in their next contest. That's certainly the case in this one folks. Bet the Raiders Sunday.