15* Ravens/Chargers AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Diego +1

Baltimore vs. San Diego, 11/25/2012 16:05 EDT, Score: 16 - 13

Point Spread: +1/-105 San Diego

Sportsbook: Bovada

Result: Loss

Taking a closer look at the numbers, I believe the Chargers are actually the superior team and should be the favorite in this contest. Yes, they have given some games away, but the Ravens have basically won all of their close games while catching plenty of breaks along the way. That’s the biggest difference between these teams record-wise.

Many people believe that the Ravens have a great defense, but that simply hasn’t been the case this year. They rank 25th in the league in total defense at 382.3 yards per game allowed. San Diego has actually been better on that side of the ball as it ranks 8th in the league in total defense at 324.4 yards per game.

Baltimore really hasn’t even been that good offensively this season. It ranks 20th in the league in total offense at 338.7 yards per game. It is actually getting outgained by 43.6 yards per game, which is a number more indicative of a team with a below .500 record rather than one that is 8-2. The Ravens are only scoring 16.6 points per game on the road this season.

The key to stopping the Ravens’ offense is stopping Ray Rice. The Chargers certainly have the antidote considering they rank 3rd in the league against the run at 87.9 yards per game. They are giving up a mere 3.8 yards per carry this season on the ground.

Baltimore is 3-12 ATS in road games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better since 1992. The Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. Baltimore is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 vs. a team with a losing record. The Chargers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC foes. The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Take the Chargers Sunday.