4* NFC South Showdown on Buccaneers +1.5

Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay, 11/25/2012 13:00 EDT, Score: 24 - 23

Point Spread: +1½/-110 Tampa Bay

Sportsbook: TopBet

Result: Win

4* NFC South Showdown on Buccaneers +1.5
What a difference a year can make. The Buccaneers were the second-worst investment in the NFL last season at 4-12 against the spread. This year they are the best investment in the league with an 8-2 against the spread mark.

Tampa Bay is 4-0 both straight up and against the spread in its last four games. It has won behind an explosive offense that ranks fifth in the league with 28.7 points per game. The Bucs have averaged 34.8 points during their four-game winning streak.

It is worth taking note of Tampa Bay's scoring output because it is on an 8-1 against the spread run in games when it scores 28 points or more. The Falcons are on a 26-89 against the spread slide when they allow 28 points or more.

In addition, Atlanta is just 29-52 against the spread versus good offensive teams that average 24.0 points or more per game over the last two decades. The Falcons are only 15-35 against the spread versus such teams in the second half of the season during the same time frame and have lost these contests by an average of 9.7 points.

The Tampa Bay defense has some room for improvement, but the Falcons haven’t been able to take advantage against poor defensive teams. Consider that they are on a 3-12 against the spread slide in the second half of the season versus teams that give up an average of 6.0 yards or more per play. They have lost by an average of 2.1 points in this situation. Bet the Bucs.