5* Bears/49ers Monday Night Football ATS Smash
Chicago vs. San Francisco,
11/19/2012 20:30 EDT,
Score: 7 - 32
Point Spread: -3/-130 San Francisco
5* Bears/49ers Monday Night Football ATS Smash: 49ers -3
In the battle of two backup quarterbacks, my money is on the 49ers to take care of business with a dominant performance at home against a Chicago team that is simply not a very good team without Cutler in the lineup, especially against a defense as talented as San Francisco.
The difference in this game is the two offensive lines. Chicago has one of the worst front fives in the NFL. I have a very hard time seeing them being able to get anything going on the ground against a 49ers defense that is allowing just 95.3 ypg and will be extremely fired up playing at home on Monday Night Football. As a result of the Bears likely not being able to move the ball on the ground, it is going to set up a lot of long third downs where they 49ers will be able to send the pressure and make life miserable for Campbell. This would be a major concern even if Cutler was playing.
On the flip side of things, the 49ers have a very talented offensive line that loves to play physical football and help their team run the ball right down your throat. Chicago is only giving up 92.3 ypg on the the ground, but just this past weekend they let Arian Foster rush for 102 yards on 29 attempts. The previous week they let Chris Johnson and the Titans put up 159 yards on just 18 carries and the week before allowed 119 to the Panthers. San Francisco leads the NFL with an average of 170.2 ypg on the ground. With backup quarterback Colin Kaepernick adding another dimension to the running game, I look for the Bears defense to wear down over the course of this game.
Two key trends that add some more value to the 49ers in this one. San Francisco is 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games and are a solid 21-6 ATS over their last 27 games on Monday Night Football. BET THE 49ERS!
*If you are only able to get the 49ers at -3.5, I recommend buying it down to 3-points to save yourself a loss if San Francisco only wins by a field goal.