5* AFC NON-DIVISION ATS GAME OF THE MONTH
Indianapolis vs. New England,
11/18/2012 16:25 EDT,
Score: 24 - 59
Point Spread: -9½/-105 New England
5* AFC NON-DIVISION ATS GAME OF THE MONTH: Patriots -9
After a surprising 1-2 start to the season the Patriots have got things headed in the right direction. With last week’s 37-31 home win over the Bills New England improved to 6-3 overall. They have won three straight and five of six overall.
If there was ever a time to fade the Colts, this certainly appears like the spot to do it. Indianapolis is clearly playing some good football, but they have also benefited from a pretty weak schedule. The Colts four-game winning streak has come against the Browns, Titans, Dolphins and Jaguars. Not exactly top notch competition. While they do have a very impressive win at home over the Packers, they have not looked good in a couple of big road games. They started out the season with a 21-41 loss at Chicago and later lost at the New York Jets 9-35.
While the Colts figure to have some success throwing the ball against the Patriots, you have to believe head coach Bill Belichick is going to devise some schemes to confuse the rookie. Luck has thrown 7 of his nine interceptions this season on the road. If New England can win the turnover battle they should have a great shot at winning this game by double-digits. New England is 15-5 ATS over their last 20 games vs excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more yards/game in the second half of the season.
On the other side of the ball, the Patriots should be able to score at will against a pretty suspect Colts defense. Indianapolis ranks 15th against the pass at 230.2 ypg and 22nd against the run at 120.3 ypg, despite playing some of the worst offenses in the league.
The Colts inability to stop the run is a big key in this game. Indianapolis is a miserable 4-13 ATS over their last 17 road games vs a strong rushing team (averaging 130 or more yards/game) in the second half of the season. BET NEW ENGLAND!