15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +15.5
Jacksonville vs. Houston,
11/18/2012 13:00 EDT,
Score: 37 - 43
Point Spread: +15½/-110 Jacksonville
Double-digit underdogs in the NFL have been incredible against the spread over the last several years. Oddsmakers have to set these spreads extra high to get even action on both sides in games featuring one team with one of the worst records in the NFL, and one with the best.
That provides "sharp bettors" such as myself a chance to back the undervalued underdog at a number that is better than it should be. Houston is not more than two touchdowns better than Jacksonville in this one, and I fully expect the Jaguars to take this one right down to the wire because of several different factors.
First, the Jaguars have played their best football on the road. That makes sense because they cannot be too excited to play at home when there are so many empty seats in the stands. Jacksonville is 1-3 SU but 3-0-1 ATS in road games this season. It won at Indianapolis 22-17, and it's three losses have come against the Vikings (23-26), Raiders (23-26) and Packers (15-24). As you can see, it stay within 9 points in all three of its road losses.
Houston finds itself in a letdown spot after a big win at Chicago on NBC's Sunday Night Football last week. It will have a hard time getting motivated to face a Jacksonville team that it already beat 27-7 on the road in the first meeting. The Texans will come into this game feeling like they just have to show up to win. Meanwhile, the Jaguars will be looking at this game like it's their Super Bowl.
This play falls into a system that is 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (JACKSONVILLE) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13.
The Texan are 1-9 ATS vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game in the second half of the season since 1992. The Jaguars are 15-5 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing